Image Courtesy: Laura Lockwood

The (Record) Cold, Hard Facts

By Ray Miller @yourmetray November 21, 2014 11:37 am CST

Despite long range forecasts that called for above-average temperatures for the first half of the winter, we're off to a rather chilly start across much of the US.  So far this month, temperatures have generally been from 6 to 12 degrees below average across the eastern 2/3 of the US.

November Departure From Normal

 

Of course, we expect temperatures to cool as we head into November, but so far this is quite a bit colder than last year (which led into a rather harsh winter, with most of the country experiencing below-average temperatures throughout the season.) The sudden drop in temperatures is even more dramatic considering the very warm conditions we enjoyed in October, when most of the country was basking in temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above average.
October Departure from Average

 

One of the dangers of using averages when looking at climate information is that they tend to reduce the impact of wild temperature swings.  If you look at October and November combined, it looks like we're right on average, but of course that wasn't really the case. Instead, we've had an impressively warm October followed by an equally impressively cold November.  In fact, the cold has been record-setting: so far this month, there have been 2422 new record low temperatures set. (And another 546 ties.)

Record Lows MapFor the same period last year, only 340 new record lows were set.  That tells us two things: not only has it been colder this year, but the extreme cold has affected a larger area.

Now, of course, the big question is what will happen for the rest of the winter. Earlier long-range forecasts suggesting above average temperatures for the upper Midwest this winter have now been revised, leaning more towards average temperatures, and the same forecast now calls for below-average temperatures over the southern US.   So bundle up, it looks like the cold is here to stay.

90 Day Temperature Forecast

More from Weatherology...